2With the WSOP just around the corner, this article predicts key data such as the nationality of the main event champion, the number of female participants, and the gold bracelet winner, and reviews past records and trends.
Will this summer be a record-breaking season? It's hard to predict.
Polymarket currently has no options regarding the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP), while Kalshi only has one prediction item: whether the number of participants in the Main Event will exceed 10,000.
That said, if either of these companies were to open for business at the WSOP, here are some aspects to consider.
(Disclaimer: The following content is for entertainment and reference only.)
2026 WSOP Main Event
Will the main event champion be an American?
Yes: 60%. Since Jamie Gold in 2006, exactly three-fifths of the champions have been American, including the last three editions and seven of the last eleven editions.
No: 40%. Non-American players have won four of the last seven championships. Last year, Polymarket opened at only 46.51 TP3T, briefly dropping to 44.51 TP3T before climbing back up with the rise of Michael Mizrachi.
Nationality of the WSOP Main Event Champion since 2019
| years | country | champion |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Germany | Hossein Ensan |
| 2020 | Argentina | Damian Salas |
| 2021 | Germany | Koray Aldemir |
| 2022 | Norway | Espen Jorstad |
| 2023 | United States | Daniel Weinman |
| 2024 | United States | Jonathan Tamayo |
| 2025 | United States | Michael Mizrachi |
Related question: Will more than half of the players at the final table be American? (35%, because this hasn't happened since 2021)
Will there be at least 400 women participating in the main event?
Yes: 50%. It could be achieved with just a slight boost from Leo Margets's run to the final table last year. The record for the most participants is 395, set in 2023.
No: 50%. The same reason given for the total number of participants not exceeding 10,000 is the economic downturn and rising airfares.
The number of female participants in the main event since 2021
| years | Number of women |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 283 |
| 2022 | 375 |
| 2023 | 395 |
| 2024 | 358 |
| 2025 | 369 |
Related question: Will at least 50 women make it into the prize pool? (50%, because last year a record of 49 women won was set, so just one more is needed.)
Will any female players make it to the final table of the main event?
Yes: 10%. Leo Margets finished seventh last year, and women make up about 4% of the participants, so theoretically they should make it to the final table more often than they actually do.
No: 90%. Prior to last year, only one woman had ever reached the final nine.
The last surviving woman in the main event since 2021
| years | player | Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Dragana Lim | 64th place |
| 2022 | Efthymia Litsou | 18th place |
| 2023 | Estelle Cohuet | 68th place |
| 2024 | Kristen Foxen | 13th place |
| 2025 | Leo Margets | 7th place |
Will the main event champion be 30 years old or older?
Yes: 80%. The past seven champions have all been over 30 years old, with an average age of over 40! This record could actually be pushed back a year, but John Cynn, who was 33 years old in 2018, lowered the average age.
No: 20%. The current streak is an anomaly; from 2008 to 2017, nine champions were in their 20s. The grueling nature of the main event, the number of online play sessions, and the widespread availability of solver tools all benefit young players.
Age of WSOP Main Event Champions since 2018
| years | age | champion |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 33 | John Cynn |
| 2019 | 55 | Hossein Ensan |
| 2020 | 45 | Damian Salas |
| 2021 | 31 | Koray Aldemir |
| 2022 | 34 | Espen Jorstad |
| 2023 | 35 | Daniel Weinman |
| 2024 | 38 | Jonathan Tamayo |
| 2025 | 44 | Michael Mizrachi |
Related question: Will the Main Event champion be 40 years old or older? (35%)
Other gold bracelet events
Will the GGPoker $215 Mysterious Million Tournament set a new record for the number of participants?
Yes: 40%. This has happened for four consecutive years. As an online tournament with low buy-in fees, the barrier to entry is extremely low.
No: 60%. Economic factors will end this record.
GGPoker $215 Mysterious Million Tournament: Historical Participation Counts
| years | Number of participants |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 51,003 |
| 2023 | 51,211 |
| 2024 | 52,452 |
| 2025 | 53,768 |
Will the record for the most participants in a live tournament be broken?
Yes: 25%. Tournaments with the lowest buy-in are least affected by the economy. Last year's $300 "Poker Gladiator" event had 24,629 entries, the second highest in history.
No: 75%. The overall number of participants will decrease as fewer players make multiple buy-ins in re-entry events.
The largest live event in WSOP history
| years | Event Name | Number of participants |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $500 Big 50 | 28,371 |
| 2025 | $300 Poker Gladiator | 24,629 |
| 2023 | $300 Poker Gladiator | 23,088 |
| 2015 | $565 Colossus | 22,374 |
Will someone win all three gold bracelets?
Yes: 25%. Benny Glaser did it last year. Scott Seiver did it two years ago. With so many events this year, it's possible it will happen for the third consecutive year.
No: 75%. This remains extremely difficult. Prior to 2024, this feat had only been accomplished six times in 53 years.
A player who wins three gold bracelets in a single year
| years | player | Tournament |
|---|---|---|
| 1973 | Puggy Pearson | $4,000 Seven-Card Stud; $1,000 No-Limit Texas Hold'em; $10,000 No-Limit Texas Hold'em Main Event |
| 1993 | Ted Forrest | $1,500 Razz; $1,500 Limit Omaha Hi-Lo; $5,000 Seven-Card Stud |
| 1993 | Phil Hellmuth | $1,500 No-Limit Texas Hold'em; $2,500 No-Limit Texas Hold'em; $5,000 Limit Texas Hold'em |
| 2002 | Phil Ivey | $1,500 Seven-Card Stud; $2,500 Seven-Card Stud High/Low; $2,000 SHOE. |
| 2009 | Jeff Lisandro | $1,500 Seven-Card Stud; $2,500 Razz; $10,000 Seven-Card Stud High/Low |
| 2014 | George Danzer | $10,000 Razz; $10,000 Seven-Card Stud High/Low; WSOPA $5,000 8-Game Mixed Tournament |
| 2024 | Scott Seiver | $10,000 Omaha H-Lo; $1,500 Razz; $10,000 No-Limit 2-7 Low Hand Draw 7-Player Table |
| 2025 | Benny Glaser | $1,500 Dealer Pick 6-Player Game; $1,500 Mixed Omaha 7-Player Game; $2,500 Mixed Three-Draw Low Hand Game |
Will at least eight contestants win two gold bracelets?
Yes: 60%. Ignoring 2020 and its shortened pandemic-induced schedule, since 2021, an average of more than nine athletes have achieved this feat each year.
No: 40%. From 2004 to 2020, the average was less than 2.5.
The number of "double champions" since 2020
| years | Number of people |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 |
| 2021 | 13 |
| 2022 | 8 |
| 2023 | 12 |
| 2024 | 9 |
| 2025 | 4 |
Will female athletes win two or more Open Championship gold bracelets?
Yes: 45%. This is clearly an "even-year phenomenon," as the records (4) were set and tied in 2020 and 2024. Overall, even-years lead odd-years, with 23 records compared to 15.
No: 55%. Since 2012, the average has been only 1.6. Last year I thought the chance of winning with zero points was lower than 10%, but I was wrong.
Number of Open Championship gold bracelets won by women since 2020
| years | quantity |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 4 |
| 2021 | 1 |
| 2022 | 0 |
| 2023 | 2 |
| 2024 | 4 |
| 2025 | 0 |
Related question: Will any woman win an Open Championship gold bracelet? (80%, because since 2012, except for 2022 and 2025, a woman has won at least one gold bracelet every year.)
Will a country win its first-ever gold bracelet?
Yes: 90%. This has happened every year since 2017, and it can be accomplished by just one person logging into GGPoker using a mobile phone or laptop.
No: 10%. Countries that haven't yet won a gold bracelet aren't exactly poker hotspots. There are six countries with populations exceeding 100 million without a bracelet, but would you choose from Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Congo, Ethiopia, and Egypt?
The country that won the gold bracelet for the first time since 2020
| years | quantity | country |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | Estonia, Lithuania, Cyprus, Türkiye, Croatia |
| 2021 | 4 | Poland, Malta, Slovakia, Kosovo |
| 2022 | 3 | Latvia, Peru, Macedonia |
| 2023 | 2 | Moldova, Slovenia |
| 2024 | 1 | Serbia |
| 2025 | 1 | United Arab Emirates |
Will a country win its first-ever women's open championship gold bracelet?
Yes: 25%. Most countries did not have any (only 11). Possible candidates include Australia, Austria, China, France, Italy, and Sweden.
No: 75%. The low proportion of female players outside the United States is evident from the low number of participants (197) at the WSOP European Women's Championship.
First time each country has won a gold bracelet at the Women's Open.
| years | country |
|---|---|
| 1982 | Vera Richmond, USA |
| 1997 | Costa Rica (Maria Stern) |
| 2007 | Germany (Katja Thater) & Norway (Annette Obrestad) |
| 2016 | Canada (Kristen Bicknell) & Russia (Safiya Umerova) |
| 2017 | (Liv Boeree, UK) |
| 2018 | India (Nikita Luther) |
| 2020 | Iran (Melika Razavi) |
| 2021 | Spain (Leo Margets) |
| 2024 | Brazil (Vivian Saliba) |
Will Shiina Okamoto reach the final table of the Women's Championship for the fourth consecutive year?
Yes: 25%. Okamoto is clearly a top performer in the tournament, achieving a runner-up, champion, and champion consecutive record reminiscent of Johnny Chan's Main Event run from 1987 to 1989, where he won, won, and finished as runner-up. While Chan's competition may have been more intense, Okamoto faces a much larger field (1,295 + 1,245 + 1,368 vs. 152 + 167 + 178).
No: 75%. No one can be that good; luck plays such a crucial role that it's almost impossible to reach the final table four times in a row.
Shiina Okamoto Women's Championship Results Over the Years
| years | Ranking | bonus |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 40th place | $935 |
| 2023 | 2nd place | $118,768 |
| 2024 | 1st place | $171,732 |
| 2025 | 1st place | $184,094 |
Can Daniel Negreanu (75 times) catch up with Phil Hellmuth (80 times) in career final table appearances?
Yes: 30%. Negreanu reached the final table six times last year, and nearly succeeded three times.
No: 70%. The goal is dynamic. Even if the Canadian player reaches 80 final table appearances with five more, Hellmuth could still increase his total to maintain his lead.
Number of final table appearances in career (ninth place or better)
| player | Number of WSOP final table appearances |
|---|---|
| Phil Hellmuth | 80 times* |
| Daniel Negreanu | 75 times |
| Erik Seidel | 54 times |
| Phil Ivey | 49 times |
*Hellmuth made it to his 81st WSOP final table on Monday, June 1st.*
Will anyone surpass Kristen Foxen to become the all-time leading woman in career money list ($3,610,681)?
Yes: 20%. A single large prize is enough to propel several women to the top spot. Three strong contenders are Liv Boeree (former leader), Maria Ho (the only player to have won the Main Event's "Last Survivor" title three times), and Annette Obrestad (who recently returned to the WSOP Europe after a long hiatus).
No: 80%. Boeree doesn't play many tournaments (30 wins in 18 years), so her results are inconsistent. Wenling Gao burst onto the scene in 2020, but the bar is too high now to repeat that. Natasha Mercier is unlikely to reach $1 million this year, as her career-high single win is only $284,911.
Women's Career Earnings Ranking (Over $2 million)
| player | bonus |
|---|---|
| Kristen Foxen | $3,610,681 |
| Liv Boeree | $3,250,692 |
| Wenling Gao | $2,786,614 |
| Natasha Mercier | $2,671,037 |
| Leo Margets | $2,580,695 |
| Maria Ho | $2,400,489 |
| Vanessa Selbst | $2,224,065 |
| Annette Obrestad | $2,180,458 |
| Esther Taylor | $2,123,088 |
Will there be an open tournament final table with multiple female players?
Yes: 90%. Since 1991, there have been 41 final tables with multiple women, and this has happened every year since 2017. The probability of this happening at least once in ten consecutive years is very high.
No: 10%. Margets may encourage more women to participate in the main event, but its impact on other events will be smaller.
Since 2017, there have been multiple instances of women reaching the final table in Open tournaments.
| years | Final table times |
|---|---|
| 2017 | 1 |
| 2018 | 2 |
| 2019 | 1 |
| 2020 | 3 |
| 2021 | 5 |
| 2022 | 1 |
| 2023 | 4 |
| 2024 | 3 |
| 2025 | 2 |
Related question: Can a woman break the five records set in 2021? (Probability approximately 15%)
The WSOP Las Vegas event will award approximately $500 million in prizes. Records will be broken. Some players will win life-changing fortunes, while others will be happy to add their names to Hendon Mob's database (and of course, PokerNews). Everyone will have a great time.
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