[Variance Basics] How do mutations affect short-term win rates?

Key conclusion: Variance distorts short-term results.

In the short term:
→ Probability may not be immediately apparent
→ EV may not be realized immediately
→ Even with the right decision, you can still lose.

This fluctuation is called Variance.

What is Variance?

Variance represents:
→ Actual results deviate from theoretical average

For example：
→ AA was reversed in succession
→ Long-term Card Dead
→ Continue inputting Flip

These are all normal variations.

Why does the positive EV still lose?

because:
→ EV is the long-term average
→ Randomness still exists in the short term

For example：
→ 60% win rate
→ There are still 40% that will lose.

In the short term, 40% may occur repeatedly.

Why is the variance so large?

Because Texas Hold'em includes:
→ Random card dealing
→ Multiplayer battle
→ Probability of drawing a winning hand
→ All-in fluctuations

These factors can amplify short-term outcome volatility.

Classic practical scenarios

You: AK
Opponent: QQ

All-in before flipping:
→ You are scheduled for 43%
→ Opponent approximately 57%

If you lose 5 times in a row:
→ Many people would find this "unreasonable".

But this is entirely possible.

Why are so many players defeated by Variance?

Because of them:
→ Over-focus on short-term results
→ Do not understand sample size
→ Replacing mathematics with emotion

What truly ruins a player is usually not losing the game, but their emotional reaction.

How do experts view Variance?

Experts know:
→ Variance will always exist
→ Short-term wins and losses are not important
→ Long-term EV is more important

A skilled person doesn't fight against variance; they manage it.

How does variance affect the earnings curve?

Even the winners:
→ The curve will also fluctuate up and down.
→ It's impossible to rise in a straight line forever.

What is truly stable is not the result, but the long-term EV.

Most common mistakes

→ Downswing changed the playing style
→ Tilt after losing
→ No fund management
→ Result-based judgment strategy

These mistakes can make Variance even more fatal.

Advanced Understanding: Variance × Bankroll × Psychology

True professional gamers manage simultaneously:
→ Variance
→ Bankroll (funds)
→ Psychology

All three are indispensable.

Key conclusions

Variance is not an anomaly, but rather an integral part of poker itself.

You only truly begin to understand long-term profitability when you truly accept Variance.