When will the 2026 WSOP Main Event prize money bubble burst?

The 2026 WSOP Main Event prize bubble is expected to burst early on Day 4. Looking back at the past three years, the bubble has nearly burst by the end of Day 3, with last year seeing the rare occurrence of three players being eliminated simultaneously.

For many participants in the World Series of Poker Main Event, the goal is not to make it to the final table or win a gold bracelet, but simply to get into the money.

With Groups A, B, and C currently underway and Group D yet to begin, the familiar question is starting to circulate at Horseshoe and Paris Las Vegas: When will the prize money bubble burst?

Although the final number of participants will not be determined until the end of Group D on the second day when registration closes, we can predict it with fairly high accuracy based on the history of recent years.

According to WSOP head Kevin Mathers, the official structure of the 2026 WSOP Main Event predicts that the prize bubble will burst early on Day 4, around level 17, which is almost exactly consistent with the actual course of the tournament over the past three years.

History shows that bubbles will burst again on the fourth day.

In 2025, the field of 9,735 participants shrank to 3,453 by the third day. By the time packing was finished that evening, only 1,476 participants remained.

With 1,462 prize slots available, the tournament is just 14 eliminations away from the money circle.

The previous year, out of 10,112 entries, 3,617 players returned for Day 3. At the end of the competition, 1,524 players remained, just six places short of the 1,518 prize slots.

The same thing happened in 2023 – 1,518 players remained at the end of the third day, while there were 1,507 prize slots available.

Only in 2022 did the tournament actually reach the prize pool before the bubble burst late on the third day.

If the tournament proceeds at a similar pace again this year, players can expect another tense ending on the third day, followed by a few eliminations just a few more to lock in the prize money when they return the following morning.

Last year's bubble was unforgettable.

If you remember last summer's bubble, you'll remember it didn't disappoint. The simultaneous elimination of three players during the full-fledged hand-to-hand format presented tournament officials with an unusual situation.

British high-stakes pro Matthew Frankland was officially recorded as the "bubble boy" after finishing in 1,462nd place, while Marco Dickner and Sachin Joshi were also eliminated in the same round of hand-by-hand play.

The WSOP didn't let anyone go home empty-handed, instead splitting the prize money for 1,460th and 1,461st place finishes among these three winners, each receiving $10,000. However, one prize still needs to be decided.

Instead of the traditional alternate-year Main Event seats, the WSOP awarded a 1TP 4T 25,000 WSOP Paradise Super Main Event seat. The three eliminated players faced off in a single flop hand to determine the winner.

Dickner started with pocket nines, Frankland held K-4, and Joshi revealed 10-2. By the river, Frankland had made a straight, winning the Bahamas Set and the unofficial title of "Main Event Bubble Boy."

The real disappointment of the 2025 bubble belonged to Adam Rude, who was eliminated in 1,463rd place—just one place short—after hitting trips on the flop and losing to a flush on the river, making him the last player to leave without any consolation prize.

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